The Israel-Hamas Conflict has all of these characteristics. The weakness of the Palestinian Authority permitted a non-state actor, Hamas, to gain power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas developed links with regional powers, most notably Iran but also Qatar, which helped it consolidate its control of Gaza. Both Egypt and Israel, while opposed to Hamas’ Islamist political project, dealt with the organization for their own purposes. As a non-state actor, Hamas did not have the same stake in the local or regional status-quo that existing governments have, and thus was willing to take dramatic and violent action to change that status quo (December 7, 2023, HCSS, Transatlantic Dialogue series)

A way Out?

Brussels, October 15th,2023
 
Paul N. Goldschmidt, Director, European Commission (ret.); Member of the Advisory Council of "Stand Up for Europe".

Introduction:
 
Since the events of October 7th, governments, political authorities, experts and the media have unanimously agreed on a single conclusion:
 
"The unprecedented barbarity of the attacks and the taking by Hamas of Israeli and foreign hostages, as well as its own population, make any negotiation with a view to a lasting peace unthinkable for the immediate future".
 
The parameters defining the situation stem as much from Israel's history since its creation in 1948 (if not before) as from the conflicts themselves. These involve not only the primary responsibility of the belligerents, but also the ambiguous attitude - if not the lack of interest - of the Arab world and the international community as a whole, as well as the deliberate manipulation of national public opinions.  The latter are often mobilized for purposes unrelated to the underlying conflict, driven by imperialist ambitions for regional or world hegemony or by the desire to impose political ideologies or religious fundamentalism. This is why there is no point in arguing about any particular aspect of this issue, as each side will find ample justification for the theses it supports. A complete paradigm shift is required.

The conversation featured Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars, Council on Foreign Relations, Farah Pandith, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, Ray Takeyh, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, and Michael Froman,President, Council on Foreign Relations, Moderating

Ambassador Oren made reference to his article: … “The State of Israel copes not only with one but with at least seven existential threats on a daily basis. These threats are extraordinary not only for their number but also for their diversity.
In addition to external military dangers from hostile regimes and organizations, the Jewish State is endangered by domestic opposition, demographic trends, and the erosion of core values.

Leaders in politics, economics, history and culture were gathered to discuss and debate the Middle East, with a special emphasis on comprehending the current challenges to peace. Viewed were ideas and initiatives now underway - such as new policies, reforms, negotations and economic development proposals - that could ease tensions, strengthen relationships across borders and perhaps even help effect a lasting peace. 'In fact the kind of state that we want to have, that we aspire to have, is one that would definitely espouse high values of tolerance, co-existence, mutual respect and deference to all cultures, religions. No discrimination whatsoever, on any basis whatsoever.

Salam Fayyad: I think what he has is the benefit of the experience of the past attempts at making peace in the Middle East. I mean, style is always an integral part of the equation, certainly. But the substance of it, I believe, and what I believe is driving it is the benefit of experience of nearly 16 years of trying to do this unsuccessfully. And I say this analytically. And I say this because of what I perceive to be as a matter of very sharp focus on what I call elements of success, rather than just on the grand picture of getting there.

As one of my professors in economics was fond of saying, you need to have potatoes to make potato chips. The potatoes from the Palestinian point of view are the institutions capable of delivering good governance to the Palestinian people—the institutions of the Palestinian state in the making: … security, law and order, justice, public finance, economic management, welfare, all of the functions that any responsible state should feel obligated to deliver to its citizens in all spheres of governance. This is about building toward statehood.

You know, the Americans [and] the international community asked that the roadmap report: They want these reforms, they want the PA to do all of these things. And my message all along to people was: The world wants us to have a good public finance system, but is that against our interest? What’s wrong with that? Let’s do that. I mean, we need to do it.

Ladies and gentlemen, every time we take a step in the direction of having a function of a state perform competently, … with every step that we take in the direction of institution building, that’s a step closer to our freedom, to our statehood; that’s what it is about. Therefore, that’s what really drives this process. These happen to be our potatoes, so to speak. These happen to be our obligations under the roadmap. The roadmap is about security. It’s about security for Israel; but it’s about security for Palestinians, [too]. It’s about governance. It’s about ensuring the capacity of Palestinian people to govern themselves in all facets and spheres of governance, including security. That’s what this is about. And that’s why we took it upon ourselves—particularly after what happened to us in 2007 with the fall of Gaza to Hamas, with the West Bank being under such a state of complete and utter lawlessness—to actually be serious about state-building, get people to rally around the cores of state-building. You know, if this is about statehood, then let us build toward that.

- the Wailing Wall (Western Wall), remnant of the Jewish Temple
- the Temple Mount with the mosques
- the Holy Sepulcher Church
- the Mount of Olives
- the Garden of Gethsemane
numerous old churches, mosques, yeshivas

ca 1000 BC King David conquers Jerusalem from the Jebusites, his successor King Solomon builds the First Temple

destruction of the temple by Nebuchadnezzar

return of the Jews from Babylonian captivity, rebuilding of the walls under Ezra and Nehemiah and the temple

destruction of the Temple by Titus

Muslims conquer Jerusalem, build Al Aksa mosque under Caliph Omar

Crusaders conquer Jerusalem, Godfrey of Bouillon

1915: Sir Henry McMahon, British High Commissioner in Egypt, offered Sherif Hussein of Mecca an independent Arab state if he would help the British fight against the Ottoman Turks. Hussein's interest in throwing off his Turkish overlords converged with Britain's war aim of defeating the Ottomans

1916: Sykes-Picot agreement: partition of the regio in French and British spheres of influence

1917: Balfour declaration: a jewish national home in Palestina

1918 Jerusalem falls into British hands

1920: Treaty of San Remo: Syria and Libanon became a French mandate, Palestine, Joran and Iraq British mandate (Egypt was already in the hands of the British, Northern Africa for the greater part French and the Arabian peninsula independent)

1922: English treaty mandate, which provided to ensure Jews throughout Palestine, when Israel and the West Bank, would have the right to close settlement

1945: the Quincy meeting, that means a determination to assert US influence in a zone which is strategic to America security, the strengthening of energy security, the fight against terrorist groups, a determination to contain Iranian influence and a firm commitment to Israel's security

1947 According to the UN partition plan of Palestine, Jerusalem and the surrounding area must become a corpus separatum, freely accessible to Jews, Christians and Muslims 1947:

1948-1949 Israel conquers West Jerusalem and Trans-Jordan conquers East Jerusalem, the international community accepts the status quo. After the proclaim of the state of Israel the Arab states attacked, followed by the independence war, during which Israel extended their territory. Jordan captured the West Bank and Egypt the Gaza strip. Armistice Agreements ended the official hostilities of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, and established armistice lines between Israel and the Jordanian-held West Bank, also known as the Green Line.

1956: Suez crisis. Egypt (Nasser) nationalized the Suez Canal. After that there followed a combined attack by Israel, United Kingdom and France. Under great pressure by the US and USSR the attackers had to pull back

1967 Israel conquers the West Bank including East Jerusalem. The rise of Palestine nationalism (international terrorism)
June 6-Days war. The barrier by Egypt of the Street of Tiran for Israelian shipping is the motive for an Israelian attack on Arab neighbourhood-states. Israel captured on Egypt the Sinai desert (till the Suez Canal) and the Gaza Strip (Palestinian), on Jordan the West Bank including East Jerusalem, on Syria the strategic Golan Heights
Israel is expanding the municipal boundaries from 6 to 65 square kilometers and announces that it will no longer leave the city
June 27 Israeli law is declared applicable to Jerusalem
November 22 UN resolution 242

1970: Jordan civil war

1973: October Jom Kippoer war. Unexpected attack by Egypt and Syria to re-capture Sinai and Golan. During the war Arab oil states causes the so called first oil crisis. The war ends by the intervention by the Great Powers in a militairy deadlock

1975: start of Libanon civil war

1977: in the occupied territories the Likoed governments (Begin) started to build jewish settlements.
The historic visit to Jerusalem of the Egypt president Sadat directed to the Camp David arrangements

1979: peace treaty between Egypt and Israel

1980 de facto annexation
1981 The Knesset declares Jerusalem the "eternal and indivisible" capital of Israel.
The international community does not honor the annexation and all foreign embassies in West Jerusalem were closed. Condemnation by the UN Security Council

1982: June Extended Israelian invasion in Libanon directed to the siege of Beirut, the retreat of the PLO (to Tunis) and massacres in Sabra and Chatilia

1985: Israel's pull back from Beirut, except the security line in the South

1987: December the start of the Intifada (Palestinian revolt) in the Gaza Strip

1991: after the Gulf war (Iraq attacks Israel with scuds) the Madrid conference was arranged under pressure of the USA. The result of this was a separate peace deliberation between Israel and the Arab states

1993: after secret negotations in Oslo, Israel and the PLO signed in Washington in September an agreement of principles

1994: Arafat settled in Gaza a Palestinian National Authority and Israel and Jordan signed in September a peace treaty

1995: Rabin murdered in November

1996: stagnation in the peace process till 1999 (Netanyahu)

2000: Camp David summit (July/August) between Barak and Arafat failed. A visist of Sharon in September to the Temple Mount leads to the second Intifada (Palestinian attacks by self murders and Israelian recaptured of Palestinian territory)

2003: Roadmap to the peace of the Quartet (USA, EU, Russia and the UN), to stop all settlement-activities

2007: Annapolis agreement, which confirmed the obligation from 2003 to stop all settlement-activities

Changes in Jerusalem since 1967
- in East Jerusalem in 1967, 90% of the land was in private Palestinian ownership. In 1967, almost 90% of the land was controlled by the Israeli government. - a dozen new Jewish neighborhoods have been built in a ring around Jerusalem - 39,000 homes were built for Jews by the government, no homes for Palestinians, 88% of which were built in Jewish neighborhoods, 12% in Palestinian neighborhoods, Palestinians usually do not receive a building permit
- in 1967, no Israeli citizens lived in East Jerusalem, now(in 2009) 170,000. About 50,000 Palestinians have left East Jerusalem since 1967, with 166,500 remaining - a large number of yeshivas have arisen - the old Jewish quarter in East Jerusalem has been completely renovated - many Orthodox Jews in particular settle in Jerusalem and increasingly determine the cultural climate and social life, especially in Orthodox neighborhoods such as Mea Shearim

2012: UN voted on a resolution to upgrade the status of the Palestinian Authority to a non-member observer state

2013: launch Two State stress test, a new online tool that provides a comprehensive assessment of the key issues that would make or break a two-state outcome between Israel and Palestine

2020: Israel and the Arab World Are Making Peace (Abraham Accords Peace Agreements)

2023: Israel - Hamas war

2024: on April 14, Iran directly attacks Israel. The attack is a "response to the numerous crimes committed by the Zionist regime," the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said. The immediate reason was the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1.